周六对前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的暗杀企图预计将使美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)及其竞选团队进一步陷入被动，减少他们的信息传递，并改变拜登已经被认为摇摇欲坠的竞选。
拜登可能无法像往常一样发出积极的信息，特别是在特朗普对民主的所谓威胁方面，而民主党策略师预测，这位前总统将从枪击事件中获得民意支持本周的共和党全国代表大会在那里，他将正式接受共和党总统候选人提名。
从根本上改变的竞选动态正值民主党对拜登在2024年竞选中的地位进行更广泛的评估之际——这场辩论可能只会暂时暂停。
“这让拜登的道路变得更具挑战性，因为这让他更难强调特朗普带来的风险，尤其是在短期内，”一名熟悉拜登竞选策略的消息人士表示。
枪击事件造成特朗普右耳受伤，并导致枪手和一名集会参与者死亡，目前正被正式调查为暗杀企图，这加剧了本已激烈的竞选的基调。
拜登的团队已经在适应新的政治现实。
在总统上个月不稳定的辩论表现之后，他的竞选团队开始推出更具侵略性的竞选战略，迅速飞往关键的摇摆州，让拜登坐下来接受媒体的无稿采访，以向选民保证他会再执政四年。
但一名竞选官员告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，拜登的团队正在“暂停所有对外沟通，并努力尽快撤下我们的电视广告，”竞选领导层发出的一份内部备忘录要求工作人员“不要在社交媒体或公共场合发表任何评论。”
据一名竞选官员透露，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯也推迟了周二对佛罗里达州棕榈滩县的访问，特朗普的后院是谈论堕胎权利的地方。
拜登在周日的讲话中敦促枪击事件后保持团结，称他很感激特朗普安然无恙。
“团结是所有目标中最难以捉摸的，但没有什么比团结更重要。我们会争论，我们会不同意，这是不会改变的。但我们不会忘记我们是美国人的事实，”拜登在白宫说。
总而言之，暗杀企图突显了拜登竞选团队发现自己的脆弱立场，因为他们试图与特朗普形成对比，同时淡化两党成员周末表示已经失控的言论。
“我认为这迫使所有人重新考虑整体基调，”一名仍熟悉国会山动态的前民主党众议院助理说，他和其他人一样，在枪击事件发生后的第二天匿名讨论了政治问题。
消息人士告诉美国广播公司新闻，总统指责特朗普对民主构成威胁的消息预计将受到枪击事件的特别影响。
拜登最近在2021年1月6日起义2025项目-特朗普否认了前政府官员为理论上的第二任期制定的计划-这是他巡回演讲的基石，表明这位前总统对美国的民主基础构成了生存风险。
预计情况不会再是这样了。
一位民主党策略师表示:“就信息而言，我认为这意味着围绕2025项目的言论必须变得更加‘谷歌化’,少一些扭曲或夸张的语言。”。
“我认为在短期内，他们的信息将更多地集中在拜登身上，”熟悉拜登竞选策略的消息人士补充道。
其他民主党人表示，竞选活动仍应努力证明该国的民主基础处于危险之中，尽管他们仍强调拜登将在走钢丝。
“特朗普再次当选总统是对民主的威胁，政治暴力在美国没有立足之地;我们可以同时提出这两点，”这位前众议院助理表示。
不过，“我认为拜登在未来几天的回应将受到密切关注，”这位人士说。
除了围绕民主的争论，枪击事件可能会吸走太多的政治氧气，以至于除了暗杀企图之外，很难谈论其他任何事情。
“这使得未来四年更难转向经济对比，而这是获胜的唯一途径，”这位民主党策略师说。
一些特工敦促谨慎对待枪击事件会在多大程度上改变竞选，并指出暗杀企图和共和党大会的背靠背事件需要时间渗入公众意识。
“在看到新数据之前，我无法预测，也不会做出任何预测。实际上，我们现在必须等待暗杀后的尝试和共和党大会后的民意调查，以真正了解比赛在哪里。一个是地震，前所未有的事件，另一个是总统竞选中具有历史意义的事件，”一位民主党民意测验专家说。
不过，尚不清楚党员们是否会采纳这一建议。
在上个月灾难性的辩论表现之后，民主党人已经在就拜登在11月的机会进行越来越紧张的内部讨论。
上周，拜登试图通过给主要立法者打电话和周四的新闻发布会来平息他的怀疑者的担忧。
这些努力未能阻止更多要求他结束竞选的呼吁，此前一些呼吁变成了大喊大叫的比赛，他在新闻发布会上的失态掩盖了他对复杂外交政策问题的舒适。
现在，随着特朗普有望获得提振，这种内部争斗可能只会加剧，如果短暂停顿之后。
这位民主党策略师说:“它冻结了下周关于取代拜登的公开谈话，但我猜测，RNC后的民意调查将会更糟，当议员们返回华盛顿时，要求拜登下台的呼声会更高。”
“我认为拜登会认为他是唯一一个可以成为医治者的人，并挖掘更多的人，这只会让民主党人继续拥有一个严重落后的被提名人，但更不愿让位。”
Trump assassination attempt could force Biden to limit newly aggressive campaign
Saturday's assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is expected to put President Joe Biden and his campaign even further on their back foot, curtailing their messaging and transforming a race in which Biden was already perceived to be faltering.
Biden will likely not be able to message as aggressively as usual, particularly on Trump's supposed threat to democracy, while democratic strategists predict that the former president will get a polling boost from the shooting andthis week's Republican National Convention, where he will formally accept the GOP presidential nomination.
The fundamentally altered campaign dynamic comes amid a broader Democratic reckoning over Biden's place atop the 2024 ticket -- a debate that might only be temporarily paused.
"It makes Biden's path even more challenging since it makes it more difficult for him to highlight the risk Trump poses, especially in the short term," said one source familiar with the Biden campaign's strategy.
The shooting, which injured Trump in his right ear and led to the deaths of both the shooter and one rally attendee, is formally being investigated as an assassination attempt, heightening the tenor of an already acrimonious race.
Already, Biden's team is adjusting to the new political reality.
After the president's shaky debate performance last month, his campaign began rolling out a more aggressive campaign strategy, flying Biden out to key swing states at a rapid pace and having him sit down for unscripted interviews with the media to assure voters he's up for another four years in office.
But a campaign official told ABC News that Biden's team is "pausing all outbound communications and working to pull down our television ads as quickly as possible," and an internal memo sent by campaign leadership and obtained by ABC News asked staffers to "refrain from issuing any comments on social media or in public."
Vice President Kamala Harris also postponed her visit on Tuesday to Palm Beach County, Florida, Trump's backyard, to talk about abortion rights, according to a campaign official.
Biden in remarks Sunday urged unity after the shooting, saying he was grateful that Trump was safe.
"Unity is the most elusive goal of all, but nothing is [more] important than that, unity. We'll debate, we'll disagree, that's not going to change. But we're gonna not lose sight of the fact of who we are as Americans," Biden said from the White House.
Taken together, the assassination attempt underscores the fragile footing the Biden campaign finds itself on as it tries to prosecute a contrast with Trump while dialing down rhetoric that members of both parties said over the weekend has gotten out of hand.
"I think it forces the overall tone to be reconsidered for everyone," said one former Democratic House aide who remains familiar with dynamics on Capitol Hill, who, like others, spoke anonymously to discuss the political issue the day after the shooting.
The president's messaging accusing Trump of being a threat to democracy are expected to be particularly impacted by the shooting, sources told ABC News.
Biden had recently made the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection andProject 2025-- a plan that Trump has disowned that former administration officials put together for a theoretical second term -- a cornerstone of his stump speech, suggesting that the former president posed an existential risk to America's democratic foundations.
That's no longer expected to be the case.
"Message-wise, I think it means the rhetoric around Project 2025 must become even more 'Google it' with much less spin or hyper language," said one Democratic strategist.
"I think in the short term their messaging will be more focused on Biden," the source familiar with the Biden campaign's strategy added.
Other Democrats said the campaign should still try to make a case about the country's democratic foundations being at risk, though they still underscored Biden will be walking a tightrope.
"Another Trump presidency is a threat to democracy and political violence has no place in America; we can make both points simultaneously," the former House aide said.
Still, "I think the way Biden responds in the coming days will be watched closely," the person said.
Beyond arguments around democracy, the shooting could suck up so much political oxygen that it could be difficult to talk about anything besides the assassination attempt.
"It makes it harder to pivot to economic contrast for the next four years, which is the only way to win," the Democratic strategist said.
Some operatives urged caution at how much the shooting would alter the race, noting that the back-to-back events of the assassination attempt and GOP convention will take time to seep into the public consciousness.
"I can't forecast and won't make any predictions until I see new data. We realistically now have to wait for the post-assassination attempt and post-GOP convention polls to really understand where the race is. One was a seismic, unprecedented event and the other is a historical marker event in the presidential campaign," one Democratic pollster said.
Still, it's unclear if party members will follow that advice.
Democrats were already in the middle of an increasingly tense internal discussion over Biden's chances in November after his disastrous debate performance last month.
Last week, Biden sought to quell his doubters' worries with calls to key lawmakers and a press conference Thursday capping off the NATO summit.
Those efforts failed to stop more calls for his campaign's end, after some calls descended into shouting matches, and gaffes during his press conference overshadowed his comfort with complex foreign policy issues.
Now, with Trump expected to get a boost, that internal feud may only amplify, if after a brief pause.
"It freezes the public conversation about replacing Biden for the next week, but my guess is the polling post-RNC will be even worse, heightening the calls for Biden to step down at that point when members return to D.C.," the Democratic strategist said.
"I think Biden will think he's the only one who can be a healer and digs in more, which just keeps Democrats on this treadmill of having a nominee who is badly behind, but even more resistant to stepping aside."
