当2024年的提名过程从去年冬天开始，民主党人知道他们的候选人是乔·拜登总统。毕竟，现任总统面临着只是象征性的反对在初选中。直到拜登在6月下旬的辩论中表现不佳后，改变的前景才出现变得非常不可行—即使这样，起初似乎不太可能。然后，在仅仅两周，拜登宣布他不会寻求连任和支持副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯对于提名，民主党领导人快速合并围绕着哈里斯，民主党全国委员会宣布他们的程序正式选择被提名人，民主党代表虚拟投票正式让哈里斯成为该党的候选人.
虽然拜登不是第一个放弃竞选连任的总统吗，围绕他的离职和哈里斯的崛起的旋风般的一系列事件在近代政治史上是无与伦比的。事实上，这一切发生得如此之快，而且临近11月大选提出问题哈里斯能否发起一场有效的竞选。向公众介绍自己，发动有时旷日持久的战斗为了他们党的提名，全国范围的竞选活动定义一个政策平台——更不用说筹款了——这是候选人通常开始总统竞选的原因提前几年.
但是在里面现代总统提名程序，可以追溯到20世纪70年代，实际上是不候选人在这么晚的时候获得党内总统候选人提名是史无前例的。竞争激烈的初选在某些情况下会把提名冲突一直延续到全国代表大会。虽然这种延迟可能被用来解释一些最后敲定的提名人在大选中的失败，但每个周期的具体选举环境使这个故事变得复杂。考虑到这一点，我们回顾了最近的选举历史，将哈里斯的提名时间置于历史背景中，并考察这对她的大选机会可能意味着什么。
其他人在7月或8月获得了提名
哈里斯获得党内提名的确切日期仍有争议。大多数民主党大会代表告诉美联社7月23日，他们支持她的提名。照此推算，哈里斯在11月5日大选前105天获得了多数代表席位。或者，我们可以使用8月2日(95天后)，当哈里斯获得多数选票由全国代表投票，或8月6日(91天)，当民主党全国委员会认证哈里斯的多数。任何这些措施都使哈里斯在1976年的共和党竞选中仅次于杰拉尔德·福特总统，是大选前候选人获得提名的最短时间。
在典型的总统初选中，竞选团队和媒体跟踪积累关于代表主要基于初选结果，或者在少数情况下，显露出的偏好关于个人代表。从这个意义上来说，7月23日这个日期更好地反映了代表人数的计算——以及候选人何时获得提名的决定——在典型的竞选活动中的作用。这也更类似于凯特琳·朱伊特在她的书中采用的方法主要规则》，其中研究了管理代表分配的政党规则和选举日程如何影响提名过程，我们以此作为这一历史分析的起点。
现在，只有一个候选人正式地在大会代表在其政党的全国代表大会上投票后成为被提名者(直到今年)，这些天发生在7月或8月。然而，一个候选人成为了党的假定的一旦他或她获得了大多数代表的支持，他或她就会被提名，这通常发生在初选结束之前。这是因为大多数大会代表是根据党内初选和党团会议的结果分配或选择的，然后在大会投票期间“有义务”(共和党)或“承诺”(民主党)支持某个候选人。这项义务真的只能改变如果发生一些戏剧性的事情——例如，一个假定的被提名人退出(见:拜登)或者大会需要多次投票来选择一个被提名人，这最近一次发生在1952年.
有时候，一个竞争者在竞选过程中很早就获得了多数代表席位——就像2000年3月中旬阿尔·戈尔和乔治·w·布什的情况一样。然而，如果我们考虑当代的21项竞争提名(即，没有现任总统竞选的提名几乎没有竞争对手)，其中9项——加上哈里斯的提名——直到6月或更晚才尘埃落定。
在两党大会期间或前后敲定的两位候选人中，福特保持着最短时间跨度的记录，在大选前76天成为共和党提名人。1976年，共和党在堪萨斯城召开全国代表大会没有假定的被提名人。在现任福特和前加州州长罗纳德·里根之间漫长而有争议的提名战之后，福特领先不到100名代表里根的照片。由于两个候选人都没有获得大多数代表的支持，竞选就只剩下尚未决定的代表了。在大会的投票中，福特117名代表获胜获得提名。
像福特一样，前副总统沃尔特·蒙代尔在1984年的党代会上完全获得了民主党提名。在...之后竞争异常激烈的初选对科罗拉多州参议员加里·哈特和牧师杰西杰克逊，蒙代尔似乎拥有极其微弱的代表多数去参加大会了。然而，他的立场取决于报道该党超级代表的支持—同年首次出现的代表类别，由政党领导人和当选官员组成，他们没有通过初选结果做出承诺，可以自由支持自己选择的候选人。因为哈特一直到大会前都在争取代表支持，直到正式点名投票才确认蒙代尔的多数。(超级代表今天仍然是民主党提名过程的一部分，但该党降低了他们的影响力在2020年大选之前。)
直到6月初，也就是大选前150天左右，其他七场民主党提名竞选也没有推定提名人。在1976年，拥挤的场地十几名民主党候选人争夺提名，前佐治亚州州长吉米·卡特直到6月8日初选的最后一天才获得必要的代表。大约在1980年的下一次，卡特再次无法获得大多数代表，直到初选的最后一天，因为马萨诸塞州参议员特德·肯尼迪留在比赛中并获得了代表。
1988年和1992年的民主党竞选也在初选的最后一天结束。1988年，马萨诸塞州州长迈克尔·杜卡基斯一决雌雄田纳西州参议员阿尔·戈尔和杰克逊发起他的第二次总统竞选1992年，阿肯色州州长比尔·克林顿对抗前马萨诸塞州参议员保罗·聪格斯和前加利福尼亚州州长杰里·布朗。伊利诺伊州参议员巴拉克·奥巴马和纽约州参议员希拉里·克林顿之间的2008年民主党竞选甚至更近了:由于加纳的努力，奥巴马在最后一场初选中取得了实际上的胜利足够的超级代表支持成为推定被提名人;与1984年的哈特不同，克林顿暂停了她的竞选此后不久。
此外，希拉里·克林顿在2016年的第二次总统竞选中获得了大多数民主党代表的支持就在初选即将结束的时候由于佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯出人意料的竞争表现。(与一些桑德斯支持者的言辞，克林顿会赢得基于投票的只有承诺的代表，意思是她压倒性的超级代表支持不是决定性的。)最后，2020年的民主党竞选也持续到6月，但它带有一个星号:新冠肺炎·疫情引起的许多初选的延迟正如拜登控制了比赛，所以他几乎可以肯定提前获得胜利使用原始日历，特别是考虑到桑德斯中止了他的竞选4月8日，为拜登留下了一条没有争议的道路。
尽管有2020年的竞选，但民主党推定提名人往往比共和党推定提名人晚出现，这不是巧合。相反，这是当事人各自的代表分配规则的副产品。自20世纪80年代以来，民主党一直要求各州使用某种比例代表制根据初选和党团会议的结果分配代表。这意味着留在竞选中的候选人可以通过增加代表人数来有意义地减缓领先者的代表积累，即使他们没有完全赢得任何州。另一方面，共和党给各州在分配代表时有更大的回旋余地。几个国家使用赢家通吃的规则，这意味着获胜者可以以更快的速度获得代表，而非获胜者则没有代表。
后来的提名对哈里斯来说意味着什么?
当然，每个政党确定提名人的目标是赢得接下来的大选，至于后来获得的提名是否会影响该党在11月的胜算，这是一个悬而未决的问题。毕竟，福特在1976年的竞选中险胜，而蒙代尔在1984年输得很惨。传统智慧共和党经常赞同的观点是，短时间的提名战(以及更长时间的大选活动)让该党及其选民有时间愈合提名战的创伤，并在11月之前团结在被提名人周围。然而，也有一种观点认为，像2008年民主党初选这样漫长而激烈的提名竞争可以增强党的基础,产生兴奋和热情，并帮助最终的候选人创建活动基础架构横跨各州。
哈里斯的竞选活动，由于其不同寻常的环境，可能仍然以短期和长期提名战为特色。与过去那些在漫长的初选活动后获得提名的人不同，哈里斯不得不在选举日历相对较晚的时候迅速转向大选活动。然而，民主党人的2024年周期实际上有许多标志短的提名战，体现在党的努力，团结到拜登和缺乏严重的反对他在初选中，甚至事实上，民主党人已经在寻求加快确认拜登的投票因为他在6月27日的辩论中表现不佳，他的候选人资格开始瓦解。
虽然拜登大约两周的下台是前所未有的，并肯定引起了一些高调党内斗争民主党人迅速团结在哈里斯身后，确保了这一点没有结果长时间的内讧有时是更长时间的初选的特征。该党甚至开创了一个新的先例，尽快确认哈里斯的提名——尽管民主党大会要到下周才开始，但哈里斯已经正式成为该党的提名人，凭借一个代表的虚拟投票提名一名候选人。这一加快的时间表部分是由于对...的担忧一些州的选票准入法律，审查副总统候选人所需的时间，以及防范共和党的法律挑战——也可能使哈里斯免受其他挑战者的影响。
史无前例的提前虚拟投票意味着哈里斯实际上成为了该党的正式的历史上较早获得提名，甚至在选举周期中相对较晚的时候成为推定提名人。由于新冠肺炎疫情，它还建立在该党在2020年(在一个虚拟的党大会上)虚拟提名拜登的基础上，强调该党可以自由打破传统，改变其选择提名人的规则总统提名过程是一个政党过程,不是一个受宪法、联邦法律或州法律管辖的程序。
哈里斯的情况在其他关键方面也有所不同。首先，因为她没有发起初选，她没有像福特或蒙代尔那样受到党内对手的攻击，而福特或蒙代尔可能受到攻击给对方提供攻击的素材大选。她还有其他最后敲定的候选人所没有的优势:在她被提名时，哈里斯是副总统，她的知名度、可信度和经验有助于党内精英更容易获得提名迅速凝聚在她周围。她能够筹集创纪录的资金作为她的候选人充满活力的民主党选民。另外，她已经能够更容易地利用已经存在的拜登-哈里斯竞选基础设施，不同于替代选择民主党人可能会考虑.
此外，与福特和蒙代尔面临的漫长的初选和党派分歧相比，其他选举特有的因素可能更好地解释了他们的失败。1976年，共和党正在摆脱水门丑闻理查德·尼克松总统的辞职福特很快赦免了尼克松上任后，哪个损害新总统的政治地位。1984年，蒙代尔面临着受欢迎的现任者在里根，谁骑对经济非常乐观的看法为了轻松的胜利。
最终，还不清楚候选人何时成为推定被提名人与他们在11月的成功之间是否存在有意义的关系:在6月或更晚些时候解决的八场比赛中(不包括2020年和2024年的比赛，因为它们没有旷日持久的提名战)，被提名人在三场比赛中赢得了大选。
哈里斯今年也可能受益于这样一个事实，即美国政治中一些较大的力量也可能使日历后期选择的被提名人更容易巩固支持。政党现在在意识形态上更加“有序”与20世纪70年代和80年代相比，大多数保守派支持共和党，大多数自由派支持民主党。同时，两极分化使两党的分歧越来越大，选民更有可能消极地看待对方这使得他们更有可能支持他们喜欢的政党，不管每个政党提名谁。当谈到民主党人与特朗普的对比时，这一点尤其容易看出看起来如此令人不安他们愿意将现任总统从自己的政党中排挤出去来增加他们获胜的机会.
***
2024年的竞选在许多方面创造了历史，推定被提名人的前所未有的离开以及围绕替代候选人的快速整合。但是，尽管有一些令人震惊的发展，这个选举周期并没有在候选人获得多数代表成为其政党推定提名人的时间方面开辟新的天地。按照现代提名战的标准，哈里斯很晚才获得提名，但这可能会如何以及在多大程度上影响她在大选中的前景，仍是历史。
Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?
When the 2024 nomination processkicked off this past winter, Democratsknew that their nomineewould be President Joe Biden. After all, the incumbent facedonly token oppositionin the primaries. Not until after Biden's poor showing in a late June debate did the prospect of a changebecome remotely feasible— and even then,it initially seemed unlikely. Then, in the span ofbarely two weeks, Biden announcedhe would not seek reelectionandendorsed Vice President Kamala Harrisfor the nomination, Democratic party leadersrapidly coalescedaround Harris, the Democratic National Committeeannounced their proceduresfor formally selecting a nominee, and Democratic delegates voted virtuallyto officially make Harris the party's choice.
Although Bidenisn't the first president to drop a reelection bid, the whirlwind series of events surrounding his departure and Harris's rise are unparalleled in recent political history. The fact that this all happened so quickly and close to the November election hasraised questionsabout whether Harris can mount an effective campaign. Between introducing themselves to the public, waginga sometimes-lengthy fightfor their party's nomination,campaigning across the countryand defining a policy platform — not to mention fundraising — there's a reason candidates typically begin their presidential bidsyears in advance.
But withinthe modern presidential nomination process, which dates back to the 1970s, it is actuallynotunprecedented for a candidate to clinch a party presidential nomination this late. Highly competitive primaries have in a few instances extended nomination clashes all the way to the national convention. While such delays might be used to explain the general election defeats of some late-clinching nominees, that story is complicated by each cycle's specific electoral circumstances. With that in mind, we took a look at recent election history to place Harris's nomination timing in historical context and examine what it might mean for her general election chances.
Others have clinched a nomination in July or August
The exact date that Harris clinched her party's nomination is open to debate. A majority of Democratic convention delegatestold the Associated Presson July 23 that they supported her nomination. By that reckoning, Harris secured a delegate majority 105 days before the Nov. 5 election. Alternatively, we could use Aug. 2 (95 days out), when Harrisgarnered a majority of votescast virtually by national delegates, or Aug. 6 (91 days out), when the Democratic National Committeecertified Harris's majority. Any of these measures puts Harris behind only President Gerald Ford in the 1976 Republican race for the shortest time before the general election that a candidate clinched a nomination.
During a typical presidential primary, the campaigns and mediatrack the accumulationofdelegateslargely based on primary election results or, in fewer cases,the revealed preferencesofindividual delegates. In that sense, then, the July 23 date better mirrors how the delegate count — and determinations of when a candidate clinches the nomination — works in a typical campaign. This also more closely resembles the approach that Caitlin Jewitt employed in her book "The Primary Rules," which examines how party rules governing delegate allocation and the election calendar affect the nomination process, and which we use as the starting point for this historical analysis.
Now, a candidate onlyofficiallybecomes the nominee after convention delegates cast their ballots at their party's national convention (up until this year), which these days happens in July or August. However, a candidate becomes the party'spresumptivenominee once he or she has secured support from a majority of those delegates, which more often than not happens before the end of the primary season. That's because most convention delegates are allocated or selected by the results of party primaries and caucuses, and are then "bound" (Republican) or "pledged" (Democratic) to back a candidate during the convention vote. This obligationcan really only changeif something dramatic happens — for instance, a presumptive nominee drops out (see: Biden) or it takes multiple ballots for the convention to choose a nominee, whichlast happened in 1952.
Sometimes a contender secures a delegate majority very early on in the process — like in mid-March for both Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. However, if we consider the 21 competitive nominations in the modern era (i.e., those that did not feature an incumbent president running mostly uncontested), nine of those — plus Harris's — weren't settled until June or later.
Of the two candidates who clinched at or around the time of their party conventions, Ford holds the record for the shortest time span, becoming the GOP nominee 76 days before the general election. Headed into the 1976 Republican National Convention in Kansas City, the Republicansdid not have a presumptive nominee. After a long, contentious nomination fight between incumbent Ford and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, Fordwas less than 100 delegates aheadof Reagan when the convention began. With neither candidate having sewed up a majority of delegates, the race came down to the undecided delegates. In the convention's floor vote, Fordwon by 117 delegatesto clinch the nomination.
Like Ford, former Vice President Walter Mondale fully secured the 1984 Democratic nomination at the party convention. Afteran exceptionally competitive primary contestagainst Colorado Sen. Gary Hart and Rev. Jesse Jackson, Mondaleappeared to have an extremely narrow delegate majorityheaded into the convention. However, his position rested on the reportedsupport of the party's superdelegates— a category of delegates that made its debut that same year, consisting of party leaders and elected officials who are not pledged through the results of primary contests and are free to support the candidate of their choice. Because Hart continued to fight for delegate support until the convention, it wasn't until the formal roll call vote that Mondale's majority was confirmed. (Superdelegates are still a part of the Democratic nominating process today, but the partyreduced their influenceahead of the 2020 election.)
Seven other Democratic nomination races also didn't have a presumptive nominee until early June, around 150 days before the general election. In 1976,a crowded fieldof more than a dozen Democratic candidates vied for the nomination, and former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter was not able to acquire the necessary delegates until June 8, the day of the final primary contests. The next time around in 1980, Carter was again unable to capture a majority of delegates until the final day of primary voting because Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedystayed in the raceand racked up delegates.
The Democratic contests in 1988 and 1992 also wrapped up on the last day of primary voting. In 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakisduked it outwith Tennessee Sen. Al Gore and Jackson, who wasmounting his second presidential bid, while in 1992 Arkansas Gov. Bill Clintonfaced off againstformer Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas and former California Gov. Jerry Brown. The 2008 Democratic contest between Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New Yorkwas even closer: Obama effectively won as the last primaries were taking place thanks to garneringenough superdelegate supportto become the presumptive nominee; unlike Hart in 1984, Clintonsuspended her campaignshortly thereafter.
Also on this list is Hillary Clinton's second presidential bid in 2016, which secured a majority of Democratic delegatesjust shy of the conclusion of the primary seasondue to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders's unexpectedly competitive showing. (At odds with some of therhetoric from Sanders's supporters, Clinton would've won based on a vote ofonly the pledged delegates, meaningher overwhelming superdelegate supportwasn't decisive.) Finally, the 2020 Democratic race also lasted until June, but it comes with an asterisk: The COVID-19 pandemic causedthe delay of many primariesjust as Bidenwas taking control of the race, so he would have almost certainlyclinched victory much earlierusing the original calendar, especially given that Sanderssuspended his campaignon April 8, leaving an uncontested path for Biden.
The 2020 campaign notwithstanding, it is not a coincidence that presumptive Democratic nominees tend to emerge later in the season than presumptive Republican nominees. Instead, this is a byproduct of the parties' respective delegate allocation rules. Since the 1980s, the Democratic Party has mandated that statesuse some form of proportional representationto allocate delegates based on the results of the primaries and caucuses. This means that candidates who stay in the race can meaningfully slow down the leader's accumulation of delegates by picking up delegates even if they don't win any states outright. The Republican Party, on the other hand, gives statesmuch more leeway in how they allocate delegates. Several statesuse winner-take-all rules, meaning that the winner can pick up delegates at a much quicker pace, whereas the non-winners are left with no delegates.
What could a later nomination mean for Harris?
Of course, each party's goal in settling on a nominee is to win the ensuing general election, and it's an open question as to whether a nomination clinched later affects a party's chances in November. After all, Ford narrowly lost the 1976 race, while Mondale lost badly in 1984.The conventional wisdom, which the GOP has often subscribed to, is that a short nomination battle (and longer general election campaign) allows the party and its voters time to heal wounds from the nomination fight and rally around the nominee well in advance of November. However, there is also a school of thought that long, competitive nomination contests like the 2008 Democratic primarycan energize the party base,generate excitement and enthusiasm, and help the eventual candidatecreate campaign infrastructureacross the states.
Harris's campaign, with its unusual circumstances, may still feature aspects of both a short and long nomination fight. Not unlike past nominees who secured their spots after lengthy primary campaigns, Harris has had to quickly pivot to a general election campaign relatively late in the election calendar. Yet the 2024 cycle for Democrats actually had many trappings of ashortnomination battle, exemplified by the party's efforts to rally to Biden and a lack of serious opposition to him in the primaries and even the fact that Democrats werealready looking to speed up the vote to confirm Bidenas the nominee when his candidacy began to come apart after his poor showing in the June 27 debate.
Although Biden's roughly two-week ouster was unprecedented and certainly prompted some high-profileintraparty strife, Democrats' moves to unify quickly behind Harris ensured that itdid not resultin the type of prolonged infighting sometimes characteristic of lengthier primary races. The party even set a new precedent to confirm Harris as quickly as possible — though the Democratic convention doesn't begin until next week, Harris has already officially become the party's nominee, by virtue of avirtual vote of delegatesto nominate a candidate. This expedited timeline — prompted in part byconcerns aboutballot access laws in a few states, the time needed to vet a vice presidential candidate, and guarding against Republican legal challenges — also likely insulated Harris from other challengers materializing.
The unprecedented early virtual vote meant that Harris actually became the party'sofficialnominee historically early, even while becoming the presumptive nominee relatively late in the election cycle. It also builds on the party's virtual nomination of Biden in 2020 (at a virtual party convention) due to the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing that the party is free to break from tradition and change its rules for selecting its nominee: Thepresidential nomination process is a party process,not a process governed by the Constitution, federal law or state laws.
Harris's situation differs in other key respects, too. For one thing, because she did not wage a primary campaign, she was not battered by attacks from party rivals in the ways Ford or Mondale were, which cangive the other party fodder for attacks heading intothe general election. She is also advantaged in ways that other late-clinching candidates have not been: At the time of her nomination, Harris was the vice president, lending her name recognition, credibility and experience that helped make it easier for party elitesto rapidly coalesce around her. She was ableto raise record amounts of moneyin a short timeframe as her candidacyenergized Democratic voters. Plus, she has been able to more easily utilize the already-existingBiden-Harris campaign infrastructure, unlike the alternative choicesDemocrats may have considered.
Additionally, other election-specific factors potentially better explain the defeats of Ford and Mondale than the lengthy primary campaigns and party divisions that they faced. In 1976, the GOP was coming off ofthe Watergate scandaland President Richard Nixon's resignation, andFord soon pardoned Nixonafter taking office, whichhurt the new president's political standing. In 1984, Mondale faced apopular incumbentin Reagan, who rodestrongly positive views of the economyto an easy victory.
Ultimately, it's unclear if there's a meaningful relationship between when a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee and their success in November: Out of the eight races that were settled in June or later (excluding the 2020 and 2024 races because they didn't have protracted nomination fights), the nominee went on to win the general election in three.
Harris may also benefit this year from the fact that some of the larger forces at work in American politics may also make it easier for nominees chosen late in the calendar to consolidate support. The political partiesare more ideologically "sorted" nowthan they were in the 1970s and 1980s, with most conservatives aligning with the GOP and most liberals backing the Democrats. Meanwhile, polarizationhas moved the parties farther apart, and voters are more likely toview the other party negatively, which has made it more likely that they'll back their preferred party no matter who each party nominates. This is especially easy to see when it comes to Democrats vis-à-vis Trump, whom Democratsviewed so disconcertinglythat they were willing to push aside an incumbent president from their own partyto improve their chances of winning.
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The 2024 race has made history in many ways, with the unparalleled departure of a presumptive nominee and rapid consolidation around a replacement candidate. But despite some of its stunning developments, this election cycle has not broken new ground when it comes to the timing of a candidate securing a delegate majority to become their party's presumptive nominee. Harris clinched the nomination pretty late by the standards of modern nomination battles, but how, and how much, that might affect her prospects in the general election campaign is history yet to be written.
