在职者很少输掉初选，2024年也不例外。总共只有四名美国众议院议员—二共和主义者和二民主主义者—在过去六个多月的初选中，他在提名竞争中表现不佳。值得注意的是，在初选中失利的两位民主党人——纽约州众议员贾马尔·鲍曼(Jamaal Bowman)和密苏里州众议员柯里·布什(Robert Bush)——都是在受以色列和加沙冲突影响的外部团体的参与下落败的。
这两个种族都展示出来了持续的角色民主党内部对美国对以色列政策的分歧加剧助长了干涉在这一轮的民主党初选中，外部团体一直关注这个问题。这种党内动态还引发了针对鲍曼和布什的资金特别充足的反对运动，他们是“小队”的一部分，这是一个非正式但高调的团体，由大约九名进步的众议院民主党人组成，他们因直言不讳的亲巴勒斯坦立场而受到批评。尽管著名的国家进步团体花费资源帮助保护队员，亲以色列团体的花费远远超过他们。
接下来，我们来看看关注美国与以色列和加沙关系的团体是如何行动的，以及在其他时候是如何行动的，以更广泛地影响涉及队员的初选，以及2024年的民主党初选。
亲以色列团体关注两名队员
2023年10月哈马斯袭击以色列后，民主党发现自己陷入了内部冲突该党对以色列和加沙的立场。长期临界以色列及其对巴勒斯坦人的政策led通话要求在加沙立即停火。同时，一些民主党同僚和亲以色列团体认为这些高调的进步人士对以色列的支持不够甚至他们的言论是反犹太主义的。在这种气氛下，9名与小队标签相关的众议院民主党人中的5名(在不同程度上)面临着因其在以色列-哈马斯冲突中的立场而受到支持的主要挑战。
最后，鲍曼和布什败北，成为本轮国会中唯一失去再次提名的在任民主党人。除此之外，鲍曼、老布什、明尼苏达州众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔和宾夕法尼亚州众议员李夏苏在所有寻求连任的众议院民主党人中有九分之四的初选表现最差。在不得不处理有争议的初选的五名队员中，只有纽约州众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯可以说已经轻松地派出了她的主要初选挑战者。
亲以色列团体显然扮演了重要的角色在对团队的挑战中，投资大量资金来打倒这些进步的现任者:在涉及团队成员的所有初选中，外部团体花费了3840万美元，其中近三分之二(2470万美元)来自支持致力于加强美以关系的政治家的团体。基于OpenSecrets汇编的数据.
反班部队作为一个整体大大超过亲班实体，3070万美元至760万美元，其中亲以色列团体占了大部分资金。毫无疑问，最大的参与者是由两党组成的美国以色列公共事务委员会(AIPAC)，谁的附属机构联合民主项目超级政治行动委员会花费了2320万美元反对队员或支持他们的主要挑战者。另一个值得注意的亲以色列团体是以色列民主党多数派(DMFI)，这是一个民主党超级政治行动委员会，在这些选举中投资了150万美元。亲加密的Fairshake PAC(花费350万美元)和主流民主党PAC(150万美元)是另外两个主要的反班力量，尽管这些团体主要不是围绕美国政治中的以色列问题组织的。
三个主要的国家进步组织确实花费了钱来保护在职的队员，但是花费的比例要小得多。正义民主党支付了340万美元，工人家庭党花费了200万美元支持班底重新提名，而国会进步核心小组的竞选团队—国会山最左边的政党会议—又花了27.5万美元。
当然，并非所有这些比赛都吸引了同样多的关注。事实上，在支持和反对小队的团体在小队初选中的3840万美元总支出中，有3630万美元来自两场比赛:鲍曼对威彻斯特县行政长官乔治·拉蒂默的倾斜和布什对圣路易斯县检察官韦斯利·贝尔的倾斜。联合民主党和DMFI只在涉及队员的五场比赛中的两场比赛中花了钱，而AIPAC利用其捐助者门户网站向Latimer和Bell提供了至少550万美元的直接个人捐款，但没有向Lee、Ocasio-Cortez或Omar的主要初选挑战者提供捐款。
但是，当亲以色列团体加入到与队员的竞争中时，其他因素也在发挥作用，使他们的影响力变得复杂。事实是，鲍曼和布什可以说是最脆弱的队员这种循环，使得他们可能是反班组织最容易得手的人。在2022年的第一次连任竞选中，鲍曼只赢得了54%的选票在他的初选中对抗多个挑战者。去年九月，他吸引了大量的负面关注受到指责不得不支付罚款拉火警警报在国会大厦举行投票以避免政府关门之前今年早些时候发现的订婚了毫无根据的阴谋论关于911的旧博客。布什在2022年的表现比鲍曼好—她赢了70%——但也被丑闻所困扰，因为她面临联邦调查涉嫌滥用资金支付她的安全团队，包括她的丈夫。
另一个潜在的差异是鲍曼和布什缺乏以往的执政经验，这种服务建立了更深层次的关系，当地党的要人和选民。鲍曼和布什在2020年初选中击败现任者作为局外人:鲍曼一直在一位中学校长，而布什已经进入政界2014年密苏里州弗格森迈克·布朗枪击案后成为一名活动家。相比之下，四名队员此前曾在各自的州议会任职——李、奥马尔、伊利诺伊州众议员迪莉娅·拉米雷斯(Delia Ramirez)和密歇根州众议员拉希达·特拉伊卜(Rashida Tlaib)——而另外两人曾担任过市议员——得克萨斯州众议员格雷格·卡萨尔(Greg Schmidt)和马萨诸塞州众议员艾安娜·普雷斯利(Ayanna Pressley)。奥卡西奥·科尔特斯也没有前科，但是她是最突出的小组成员，并在2024年的周期中筹集了最多的资金(900万美元截至6月30日，Tlaib将与730万美元截至7月中旬)。
这些因素结合亲以色列势力的干预，有助于解释为什么强大的初选挑战者进入了对鲍曼和布什的比赛。比如AIPAC拉蒂默鼓励道为了挑战鲍曼，作为一名长期任职的县行政长官和当地政界的知名人士，他有能力筹集大量资金并发起一场严肃的竞选活动。尽管拉蒂默从AIPAC的外部支出中获得了帮助，但他在竞选中的地位也超过了鲍曼，640万美元到570万美元截至6月下旬。在弗格森骚乱之后，贝尔在圣路易斯地区建立了自己的家园，赢得席位在2015年弗格森的市议会上，然后赢得职位2018年圣路易斯县检察官。贝尔最初参加了密苏里州2024年的参议员竞选，但转而挑战布什2023年10月，在以色列冲突的喧嚣声中。他继续明显激怒她，480万美元到290万美元截至7月中旬。
相反，更多被高度吹捧的人物不愿意与其他队员竞选。在其他三个有初选挑战者的人中，奥马尔似乎是最危险的，因为她在2022年仅以2个百分点的优势击败了前明尼阿波利斯市议员唐·塞缪尔。但是，尽管塞缪尔斯决定在2024年再次竞选，反班团体最终只花了11万美元反对奥马尔——可能是因为塞缪尔斯不是他们首选的候选人。犹太内幕此前报道AIPAC想要的一位现任明尼阿波利斯女议员和奥马尔竞选——她拒绝了——然后《以色列时报》报道亲以色列团体认为奥马尔更重视她的初选，他们的支出不足以帮助塞缪尔。很明显，奥马尔最终超过了塞缪尔680万美元到140万美元截至7月下旬。
理论上，李也可能面临更严峻的挑战，她在匹兹堡及其周边地区的第12选区的2022年初选中只赢了1分。但在她2024年的连任竞选中，李唯一的主要对手是埃奇伍德区议会议员巴维尼·帕特尔，他被李激怒了270万美元到$700,000。至于奥卡西奥-科尔特斯，她面临着一个不切实际的，大部分是自筹资金来自前保险业高管玛丽·多兰(最初与鲍曼竞争的人).多兰主要是吸引注意力从保守派媒体—一个不太可能赢得民主党初选选民的地方。
关注以色列的团体在初选中表现如何
在击败鲍曼和布什的过程中发挥了作用的团体在本赛季其他初选中的支持记录也相当不错。AIPAC在参议院和众议院的竞选中支持了118名民主党现任者，但在公开竞选中只有三名民主党候选人和两名(拉蒂默和贝尔)挑战现任者。然而，他们所有的支持者都赢了。(AIPAC还在初选中支持了190名共和党人，其中185名是现任者，它唯一一次失败是在阿拉巴马州的现任者对现任者的共和党竞争中，该组织支持了两位竞争者)。与此同时，美国政治行动委员会下属的超级政治行动委员会——联合民主党，在它花钱进行的民主党初选中，以五分之四的票数胜出，律师乔安娜·韦斯在年落败加州第47区前两名初选作为唯一的例外。韦斯也是DMFI支持的102名民主党候选人中唯一一名在2024年初选中失败的人。
很能说明问题的是，另一个以以色列为中心的团体J Street更亲巴勒斯坦，对以色列公共事务委员会持批评态度，但它在支持方面没有以色列公共事务委员会/联合民主党或DMFI那么成功——部分原因是它没花什么钱在这个周期的初选中。现在，J街支持的所有109名民主党现任者都赢得了再次提名，尽管其中近一半是AIPAC支持的现任者也赞同。但是，J Street在公开的初选中发现不太成功，34名支持者中只有19人进入大选。这包括J . Street支持的候选人面对AIPAC/UDP或DMFI支持的候选人的所有四场公开初选中的失败。在马里兰州第三选区，J街支持的前美国国会大厦警官哈利·邓恩输给了州参议员萨拉·埃尔夫雷斯UDP花费了420万美元来支持。与此同时，J Street支持的候选人在亚利桑那州第三选区、纽约州第一选区和俄勒冈州第五选区输给了DMFI支持的竞争者。
最终，亲以色列团体在国会取得了进展，他们除掉了两名对美国支持以色列持更强烈批评态度的人，同时也影响了其他初选的方向。然而，民主党仍然存在分歧对以色列和加沙冲突的看法。只要冲突继续，问题可能会导致进一步的政党分裂—并影响外部团体游说和助选员支持或反对候选人的方式。
Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
Incumbentsrarely lose primaries, and 2024 was no different. Just four members of the U.S. House of Representatives overall —twoRepublicansandtwoDemocrats— came up short in renomination contests over the past six-plus months of primary races. Notably, both of the Democrats who lost their primaries — Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri — were defeated in contests heavily shaped by the involvement of outside groups motivated by the conflict in Israel and Gaza.
Both of these races put on displaythe ongoing roleof heightened disagreements over U.S. policy toward Israel within the Democratic Party, whichfueled the interventionof outside groups focused on the issue throughout this cycle's Democratic primaries. This intraparty dynamic also sparked particularly well-funded opposition campaigns against both Bowman and Bush, who are part of "the Squad," an informal but high-profile group of around nine progressive House Democrats who have drawn criticism for their outspoken pro-Palestinian stances. Although prominent national progressive groups spent resources to help defend Squad members, pro-Israel groups vastly outspent them.
Here then is a look at how groups focused on American relations with Israel and Gaza acted — and at other times did not — to influence the primary contests involving Squad members, and Democratic primaries in 2024 more broadly.
Pro-Israel groups focused on two Squad members
After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, the Democratic Partyfound itself mired in internal conflictsover the party's stance toward Israel and Gaza.Long criticalof Israel and its policies toward Palestinians, the Squadled callsfor an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile,some fellow Democratsandpro-Israel groupsargued these high-profile progressives were insufficiently supportive of Israel oreven that their rhetoric was antisemitic. Amid this atmosphere, five of the nine House Democrats associated with the Squad label (to varying degrees) faced primary challenges bolstered by their position on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In the end, Bowman and Bush went down to defeat, making them the only incumbent Democrats to lose renomination in Congress this cycle. On top of that, Bowman, Bush, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar and Pennsylvania Rep. Summer Lee had four of the nine weakest primary performances out of all House Democrats seeking reelection this cycle. Among the five Squad members who had to deal with contested primaries, only New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be said to have handily dispatched her principal primary challenger.
Pro-Israel groupsclearly played a significant rolein challenges to the Squad, investing gobs of money to take down these progressive incumbents: Of the $38.4 million spent by outside groups across all primaries involving Squad members, almost two-thirds ($24.7 million) came from the pockets of groups that support politicians who are committed to bolstering the U.S.-Israel relationship,based on data compiled by OpenSecrets.
Anti-Squad forces as a whole vastly outspent pro-Squad entities, $30.7 million to $7.6 million, with pro-Israel groups accounting for most of that money. Far and away, the biggest player was the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC),whose affiliatedUnited Democracy Project (UDP) super PACspent $23.2 millionagainst Squad members or in support of their primary challengers. The other pro-Israel group of note was the Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), a Democratic super PAC that invested $1.5 million in these races. The pro-crypto Fairshake PAC ($3.5 million spent) and the Mainstream Democrats PAC ($1.5 million) were the other two major anti-Squad forces here, although those groups aren't organized primarily around the issue of Israel in U.S. politics.
Three major national progressive outfits did spend to defend incumbent Squad members, but at a far less prodigious rate. The Justice Democrats forked out $3.4 million and the Working Families Party spent $2.0 million backing Squad renomination bids, while the campaign arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus —the leftmost party caucus on Capitol Hill— spent another $275,000.
Of course, not all of these races attracted nearly the same amount of attention. In fact, $36.3 million of the $38.4 million in total outside spending in Squad primaries by pro- and anti-Squad groups came in just two contests: Bowman's tilt against Westchester County Executive George Latimer and Bush's against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. UDP and DMFI only spent in those two races out of the five contests involving Squad members, while AIPAC used its donor portal to funnel at least $5.5 million in direct individual contributions to Latimer and Bell — but not to the main primary challengers to Lee, Ocasio-Cortez or Omar.
But while pro-Israel groups went two for two when they jumped into contests against Squad members, other factors were at play that complicate the narrative about their sway. Fact is, Bowman and Bushwere arguably the most vulnerable Squad membersthis cycle, making them perhaps the lowest-hanging fruit for anti-Squad groups. In his first reelection campaign in 2022, Bowman onlywon 54 percentin his primaryagainst multiple challengers. He then attracted ample negative attention last September when hewas censuredand had to pay a fine forpulling a fire alarmin a Capitol office building before a House vote to avoid a government shutdown, and wasfound earlier this yearto have engagedwith unfounded conspiracy theoriesabout 9/11 on an old blog. Bush had a better 2022 showing than Bowman —she won 70 percent— but was also dogged by scandal as shefaced federal investigationsinto alleged misuse of funds to pay her security team, including her husband.
Another lurking differentiator was Bowman and Bush's lack of previous officeholding experience, the kind of service that establishes deeper ties to local party bigwigs and voters. Bowman and Bushdefeated incumbents in 2020 primariesas outsiders:Bowman had beena middle school principal, while Bushhad entered politicsas an activist after the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. By comparison, four Squad members previously served in their state legislatures — Lee, Omar, Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez and Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib — while two others served as city councilors — Reps. Greg Casar of Texas (Austin) and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts (Boston). Now, Ocasio-Cortez also lacked prior service, butshe is the most prominentSquad member and has raised the most money in the 2024 cycle ($9.0 millionas of June 30, with Tlaib next with$7.3 millionas of mid-July).
These factors combine with the intervention of pro-Israel forces to help explain why strong primary challengers entered the races against Bowman and Bush. For example, AIPACencouraged Latimerto challenge Bowman, and as a long-serving county executive and well-known face in local politics, he had the ties to raise a lot of money and mount a serious campaign. Although he had help from AIPAC's outside spending, Latimer also outraised Bowman in their campaign,$6.4 millionto$5.7 millionas of late June. For his part, Bell had established himself in the St. Louis area after the unrest in Ferguson,winning a seaton Ferguson's city council in 2015 and thenwinning the postof St. Louis County's prosecuting attorney in 2018. Bell initially entered Missouri's 2024 Senate race, butswitched to challenge Bushin October 2023 amid the uproar over the conflict in Israel. He went on to markedly outraise her,$4.8 millionto$2.9 millionas of mid-July.
Conversely, more highly touted figures were unwilling to run against the other Squad members. Of the other three who had primary challengers, Omar seemed perhaps the most endangered, after she defeated former Minneapolis City Councilor Don Samuels by only 2 percentage points in 2022. But while Samuels decided to run again in 2024, anti-Squad groups only ended up spending $110,000 against Omar — perhaps because Samuels wasn't their preferred candidate.Jewish Insider previously reportedthat AIPAC wanteda sitting Minneapolis councilwomanto run against Omar — she declined — andthe Times of Israel reportedthat pro-Israel groups felt Omar was taking her primary more seriously and that their spending wouldn't be enough to help Samuels. Tellingly, Omar ended up outraising Samuels$6.8 millionto$1.4 millionas of late July.
In theory, Lee also could have faced a more serious challenge, having won by only 1 point in her 2022 primary for the open 12th District in and around Pittsburgh. But in her 2024 reelection bid,Lee's only primary opponentwas Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel, whom Lee outraised$2.7 millionto$700,000. As for Ocasio-Cortez, she faced a quixotic,mostly self-fundedchallenge from former insurance executive Mary Dolan (who initially ran against Bowman). Dolanmainly garnered attentionfromconservative media outlets— an unlikely place to win over Democratic primary voters.
How Israel-focused groups did in primaries
The groups that played a part in defeating Bowman and Bush also had a pretty strong track record when it came to endorsements in other primary races this season. AIPAC endorsed 118 Democratic incumbents in Senate and House races, but just three Democratic candidates in open races and two (Latimer and Bell) who were challenging incumbents. All of their endorsees won, however. (AIPAC also endorsed 190 Republicans in their primaries — 185 were incumbents — and its only defeat came in an incumbent-versus-incumbent GOP contest in Alabama where the group endorsed both contenders). Meanwhile, UDP, the super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, went four for five in the Democratic primaries it spent money in, with attorney Joanna Weiss's loss inCalifornia's 47th District top-two primaryas the lone exception. Weiss was also the only Democratic candidate of 102 endorsed by DMFI who lost in a 2024 primary.
Tellingly, J Street, another Israel-focused group that's more pro-Palestinian and critical of AIPAC, didn't have as much success with its endorsements as AIPAC/UDP or DMFI — in part because itdidn't spend any moneyon primaries in this cycle. Now, all 109 Democratic incumbents that J Street endorsed won renomination, although nearly half of those were incumbents that AIPACalsoendorsed. But J Street found less success in open primary races, with only 19 of 34 endorsees advancing to the general election. This included defeats in all four open primaries in which a J Street-backed candidate faced an AIPAC/UDP- or DMFI-supported candidate. In Maryland's 3rd District, J Street-backed former U.S. Capitol police officer Harry Dunn lost to state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, whomUDP spent $4.2 millionto support. Meanwhile, J Street-backed candidates lost to DMFI-endorsed contenders in Arizona's 3rd District, New York's 1st District and Oregon's 5th District.
Ultimately, pro-Israel groups made gains in Congress by taking out two of the more vocal critics of U.S. support for Israel while also influencing the direction of other primaries. Nevertheless, the Democratic Partyremains dividedin its views toward Israel and the conflict in Gaza. As long as the conflict continues, the issuecould cause further party ruptures— and affect how outside groups lobby and electioneer for or against candidates.
