圣地亚哥-唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)长期以来一直承诺驱逐数百万人，但他正在为他目前的白宫竞选带来更多细节:调用战时权力，依靠志同道合的州长，并使用军队。
特朗普担任总统的记录显示，他的雄心与大规模非法驱逐美国人的法律、财政和政治现实之间存在巨大差距——根据国土安全部的最新估计，2022年1月有1100万人被非法驱逐。前总统巴拉克·奥巴马在2013年执行了432，000次驱逐出境，这是有记录以来最高的年度总数。
特朗普执政时期的驱逐出境人数从未超过35万。但他和他的首席移民政策设计师斯蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)在采访和集会中暗示，如果他们在11月重新掌权，将采取不同的方式。他们可以受益于四年任期内的经验教训，也可能受益于更多特朗普任命的法官。
“特朗普似乎在考虑的事情可能是合法的，”纽约大学法学院布伦南司法中心的律师约瑟夫·纳恩说。“可能不会有很多法律障碍。这在逻辑上将会非常复杂和困难。军方不会喜欢这么做，他们会尽可能地拖延时间，但这是可能的，所以应该认真对待。”
当被问及如何履行承诺时，特朗普竞选团队表示，特朗普将开始美国历史上最大的驱逐计划，但没有详细说明。女发言人卡罗林·莱维特(Karoline Leavitt)表示，特朗普“将调动一切必要的联邦和州权力，对非法罪犯、毒贩和人口贩子实施最大规模的驱逐行动。”
特朗普表示，他将援引1798年的《外国敌人法》，该法允许总统将任何非公民从美国与之交战的国家驱逐出境。
德克萨斯州州长格雷格·艾伯特提出了一个理论相当于入侵以证明国家强制措施的合理性，但法律学者表示，法官可能不愿意对总统认为的外国侵略进行事后批评。
全面的《外国敌人法》当局可能会回避一项禁止军方执行民事法律的法律。
特朗普说过他将重点部署国民警卫队，其部队可以在州长的命令下启动。米勒说，同情共和党州长的部队将派遣部队到附近拒绝参加的州。
“阿拉巴马州国民警卫队将在阿拉巴马州逮捕非法外国人，弗吉尼亚州国民警卫队将在弗吉尼亚州逮捕非法外国人。如果你要去一个像马里兰州这样不友好的州，那么，就只有弗吉尼亚州在马里兰州进行逮捕，对，非常近，非常近，”米勒去年在“查理·柯克秀”上说
军方已经在边境附近卷入自乔治·w·布什总统执政以来，开展了一些不被视为执法的活动，如监视、车辆维护和安装蛇腹形铁丝网。
纽约大学布伦南中心的纳恩表示，特朗普可能会着眼于2020年，当时他命令国民警卫队驱散白宫附近的和平黑人的命也是命抗议活动，尽管市长反对。特朗普这样做没有援引18世纪的战争权力法，但哥伦比亚特区的联邦地位赋予了总统行动的过大权力.
特朗普还可能与1798年后形成的移民法和法院裁决赋予的权利进行斗争，包括1980年成为法律的寻求庇护的权利。根据最高法院2001年的一项裁决，如果没有合理的机会，他们的国家会将他们带回去，那么该国的人不能被无限期非法拘留。古巴、委内瑞拉、尼加拉瓜和其他国家要么迟迟不接受他们的公民，要么拒绝。
美国移民和海关执法局(u . s . Immigration and Customs Enforcement)今年由国会资助41，500个拘留床位，这引发了人们对特朗普在登上驱逐出境航班之前将他们安置在哪里以及如果国家拒绝接收他们，他们可以拘留他们多长时间的质疑。米勒提出了“边境附近的大规模集结地，最有可能在德克萨斯州”的想法
移民与海关执法局官员煞费苦心，调查目标的背景，优先考虑有犯罪前科的人。他们试图在屋外抓捕嫌疑人，因为他们通常在没有法院授权的情况下工作，人们也不必让他们进屋。
一次逮捕可能需要数小时的监视和研究，这是一名ICE官员的工作就像看着油漆变干.
奥巴马政府国土安全部高级官员约翰·桑德韦格说:“(特朗普)要做他所说的事情几乎是不可能的，即使可能会动用军队。”。
奥巴马的驱逐数字是由当地警察把人交给ice才得以实现的，但许多州和地方政府已经开始限制与联邦移民当局的合作。奥巴马的总统任期也先于边境寻求庇护者的激增，这耗尽了特朗普和拜登政府的有限资源。
尽管许多人支持特朗普的计划，但大规模驱逐可能会拆散家庭，加剧劳动力短缺，并让与社区有着深厚联系的人背井离乡。皮尤研究中心估计，在美国至少有一人非法居留的家庭中，70%的家庭也有人合法居留。
纳恩说，军事领导人可能会抵制，因为这将削弱其他优先事项并打击士气。
“军方会看到这一点，并说这不是士兵们签署的那种职责，”他说。“这是让军方以军方不喜欢的方式介入国内政治。”
伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校(University of Illinois，Chicago)历史和拉丁美洲研究副教授亚当·古德曼(Adam Goodman)写过关于驱逐出境的文章，他说，大规模驱逐出境的威胁即使没有实施，也会产生严重影响。他认为特朗普不太可能兑现他的承诺，但这可能会引起移民社区的恐惧。
2019年6月，特朗普宣布ICE将在接下来的一周“开始移除数百万非法外国人的进程”。一个月后，该机构表示，它针对约2100人，导致35人被捕，这表明总统的计划远未实现但这只是在他们在移民社区引起广泛关注之后。
特朗普本人在周日接受记者Sharyl Attkisson采访时承认了政治风险。“你把一个错误的人带上了公共汽车或飞机，你的激进左翼疯子会试图让它听起来像是有史以来最糟糕的事情，”特朗普说，然后重复了他的承诺:“但我们正在把罪犯弄出来。我们会尽快做到。”
Trump's goal of mass deportations fell short. But he has new plans
SAN DIEGO --Donald Trump has long pledged to deport millions of people, but he's bringing more specifics to his current bid for the White House: invoking wartime powers, relying on like-minded governors and using the military.
Trump’s record as president shows a vast gulf between his ambitions and the legal, fiscal and political realities of mass deportations of people in the United States illegally — 11 million in January 2022, by the Homeland Security Department's latest estimate. Former President Barack Obama carried out 432,000 deportations in 2013, the highest annual total since records were kept.
Deportations under Trump never topped 350,000. But he and his chief immigration policy architect, Stephen Miller, have offered clues in interviews and rallies of taking a different approach if they are returned to power in November. They could benefit from lessons learned during their of four years in office and, potentially, from more Trump-appointed judges.
“What Trump seems to be contemplating is potentially lawful,” said Joseph Nunn, counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University’s School of Law. “There might not be a lot of legal barriers. It is going to be logistically extraordinarily complicated and difficult. The military is not going to like doing it and they are going to drag their feet as much as they can, but it is possible, so it should be taken seriously.”
The Trump campaign, asked how his pledge would be carried out, said Trump would begin the largest deportation program in U.S. history, without elaborating in detail. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman, said Trump “would marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers."
Trump has said he would invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country that the U.S. is at war with.
Texas Gov, Greg Abbott has advanced a theory that illegal immigrationamounts to an invasionto justify state enforcement measures, so far without success, but legal scholars say judges may be reluctant to second-guess what a president considers a foreign aggression.
The sweeping Alien Enemies Act authority may sidestep a law that bans the military from civilian law enforcement.
Trump has saidhe would focus on deploying the National Guard, whose troops can be activated on orders of a governor. Miller says troops under sympathetic Republican governors would send troops to nearby states that refuse to participate.
“The Alabama National Guard is going to arrest illegal aliens in Alabama and the Virginia National Guard in Virginia. And if you’re going to go into an unfriendly state like Maryland, well, there would just be Virginia doing the arrest in Maryland, right, very close, very nearby,” Miller said last year on “The Charlie Kirk Show.”
The military has beenperipherally involved at the bordersince President George W. Bush’s administration with activities that are not deemed to be law enforcement, such as surveillance, vehicle maintenance and installing concertina wire.
Nunn, of New York University's Brennan Center, said Trump may look to 2020, when he ordered the National Guard to disperse peaceful Black Lives Matter protests near the White House, despite the mayor's opposition. Trump did so without invoking the 18th-century war powers law, but the District of Columbia’s federal status gives the presidentoutsized authority to act.
Trump may also contend with rights afforded under immigration law and court rulings that took shape after 1798, including a right to seek asylum that became law in 1980. Under a 2001 Supreme Court ruling, people in the country illegally can't be detained indefinitely if there is no reasonable chance their countries will take them back. Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and others are either slow to accept their citizens or refuse.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is funded by Congress for 41,500 detention beds this year, raising questions about where Trump would house people before they board deportation flights and how long they could hold them if countries refuse to take them back. Miller floated the idea of “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in Texas.”
ICE officers are painstakingly deliberate, researching backgrounds of their targets and prioritizing people with criminal convictions. They try to capture suspects outside their homes because they generally work without court warrants and people don't have to let them inside.
A single arrest may require hours of surveillance and research, a job that one ICE officiallikened to watching paint dry.
“On practical level, it will be nearly impossible for (Trump) to do the things he’s talking about, even if could bring in the military,” said John Sandweg, a senior Homeland Security Department official in the Obama administration.
Obama's deportation numbers were made possible by local police who turned people over to ICE, but many state and local governments have since introduced limits on cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Obama's presidency also predated a surge of asylum-seekers at the border, which drained limited resources of the Trump and Biden administrations.
While many support Trump's plans, mass deportation could tear apart families, exacerbate labor shortages and uproot people with deep ties to their communities. Pew Research Center estimates 70% of households with at least one person in the United States illegally also have someone in the country legally.
Military leaders are likely to resist because it would undercut other priorities and damage morale, Nunn said.
“The military is going see this and say this is not the kind of duty that soldiers signed up for," he said. "This is getting the military involved in domestic politics in a way the military doesn’t like to do.”
Adam Goodman, associate professor of history and Latin American studies at the University of Illinois, Chicago, who has written about deportations, said a threat of a mass expulsion can have a serious impact even if it isn't carried out. He thinks it is highly unlikely that Trump can do what he promises but it can strike fear in immigrant communities.
In June 2019, Trump announced ICE would "begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens" the following week. A month later, the agency said it targeted about 2,100 people, resulting in 35 arrests, indicatingthe president's plans fell far shortbut only after they generated widespread concern in immigrant communities.
Trump himself acknowledged the political perils during an interview Sunday with journalist Sharyl Attkisson. “You put one wrong person onto a bus or onto an airplane and your radical left lunatics will try and make it sound like it’s the worst thing that’s ever happened," Trump said, before repeating his pledge: "But we’re getting the criminals out. And we’re going to do that fast.”
