今年秋天，整个国家将投票选举下一任美国总统，但选举很可能会归结为七个关键的摇摆州:亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州，北卡罗来纳州宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星。鉴于这些州的重要性，我们有必要仔细看看我们在每个州掌握的数据——不仅仅是副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的总统竞选现状，还有每位候选人的胜利之路以及哪些问题可能会影响选举。第二站:内华达州的银州，它是越来越多的紫色条纹出现在西南部.
历史
只有一个例外——1976年——内华达州投票选出了获胜者从1912年到2016年的每一次总统竞选中，它都以略高于2%的优势投票给民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿，打破了连胜纪录。虽然它只有六张选举人票事实证明，这些选票在近年来的激烈竞争中起着决定性的作用。内华达州在2020年帮助乔·拜登当选总统，拜登在该州的支持率与克林顿几乎相同，在2022年，紫色州帮助确定了控制权参议院的在一场势均力敌的比赛中花了几天打电话.
内华达州最近六次总统选举的结果与全国普选的结果相比较。
538号房的凯蒂·马里纳和阿米娜·布朗
在过去二十年里，该州的总统选举优势一直很小(除了前总统巴拉克·奥巴马在2008年和2012年相对较大的胜利)，在许多情况下，已经非常接近全国普选。尽管一直以来竞争激烈，但自2008年以来，该州在总统竞选中一直稳步上升，同时与整个国家相比也呈右趋势。2008年，奥巴马以12个百分点的优势赢得了内华达州，相比之下，他在全国范围内赢得了7个百分点，使该州比全国落后5个百分点。但是从那以后的每一次选举中，内华达州都有所右倾。2020年，拜登在全国范围内赢得了4个百分点，但只赢得了银州的2个百分点，使其成为正确这是自2004年总统大选以来的第一次。
2024年的民意调查
民意调查显示今年的竞争更加激烈。哈里斯在538个州的平均民调中领先约1个百分点。*这比她在全国范围内的表现略差，她在全国范围内领先特朗普近3个百分点，但这比拜登有所改善。谁在该州落后于特朗普.
人口统计
几乎四分之三占内华达州人口的10%310万住在该州南端的拉斯维加斯大都会区，这使得这座城市在这个银州的选举政治中占据主导地位。除此之外，位于该州西弯的雷诺大都会区有近50万人口，而该州的其他大部分地区是一片极度乡村化的沙漠。
有点过了28%占该州总人口的是西班牙裔或拉丁裔，使其成为该州最大的少数族裔群体。事实上，该州是第一位拉丁裔参议员的家乡，参议员凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托，目标是拉斯维加斯地区的拉丁美洲人一直是一个重要的策略为双方当事人。一份来自南加州大学包容性民主中心我发现，尽管2020年全国只有大约一半的拉美裔选民参加了投票，而总人口中约有三分之二的人参加了投票，但他们仍占当年内华达州所有选民的15%。正如我们在中看到的全国各地的民意调查共和党人似乎在这些选民中有所收获;在过去一个月进行的平均民调中，内华达州的拉美裔选民表示，他们会以21个百分点的优势(58%比37%)投票给哈里斯，而不是特朗普26点的利润拜登在2020年的人口统计中超过了特朗普，但与拉美裔选民的全国民调结果大致相当。
这个国家也在迅速发展和多样化。根据包容性民主中心的报告，2010年至2020年间，其人口增长了15%，这是由于白人人口减少导致少数群体的增长。这包括了该州大约40%的亚裔和黑人人口的增长。总体而言，2020年内华达州三分之一的选民是非白人——如果这些人口趋势持续下去，这一数字今年可能会增加。
该州至少拥有学士学位的成年人比例略低，为29%，而全国为36%。拥有或没有大学学位的选民之间的分歧一直是最重要的政治分歧在过去的几次选举中，没有大学学历的选民已经成为另一个战场。自第一次竞选总统以来，特朗普在没有大学学位的白人选民中占据主导地位，而大学毕业生则坚定地加入了民主党。虽然在最近的选举中，黑人和拉丁裔选民仍然压倒性地投票给民主党人，但那些没有大学学位的人已经趋向于共和党就像他们的白人对手一样。
所有这一切都意味着该州有很多对每个政党都很重要的人口群体，这有助于解释为什么那里的选举如此接近。
这些问题
内华达的经济在一个独特的程度上取决于酒店行业。这是在美国受影响最大受新冠肺炎疫情经济衰退的影响疫情的经济影响在那里尤为持久.
不出所料，内华达州选民参加选举的首要问题是经济，39%的可能选民认为这是他们所在州在2010年面临的最重要的问题艾默生学院/摇摆州的希尔民意调查从九月开始。但这实际上比2007年的一项类似民意调查中全国选民的比例(43%)略低九月的爱默生学院。事实上，除了亚利桑那州，内华达州选民是所有摇摆州选民中最不可能将经济作为首要议题的。相反，许多人似乎把注意力集中在一个相关的问题上，这个问题在该州尤其麻烦:住房。
对内华达州选民来说，住房负担能力是第二重要的问题，16%的人认为这是他们的首要问题，是艾默生摇摆州调查中最高的。集中在拉斯维加斯地区的内华达州新居民激增，给努力满足需求的房地产市场带来了压力。许多新居民正从加州搬来内华达州的生活成本要高得多，这使得内华达州对他们来说很便宜，但也帮助推高了现有居民的价格。据Zillow报道自拜登总统任期开始以来，内华达州的房屋价值指数增长了34%，略高于全国的增长率。内华达州租金的中位数是$2,075比全国中位数低25美元，但自2023年9月以来增加了75美元。哈里斯在这个问题上可能有优势彭博/晨间咨询调查在住房问题上，内华达州人信任哈里斯超过特朗普10个百分点(49%对39%的登记选民)。
另一方面，特朗普似乎在该州的经济上有优势(就像他在全国一样)。五十三个内华达州登记选民的百分比根据八月的CNN/SSRS民意调查，在这个问题上，比起哈里斯，更信任他。根据早先的一份艾默生学院/希尔民意测验在该州，71%的潜在选民也支持特朗普的提议(哈里斯也采纳了这一提议)，以消除小费税，这可能是因为许多内华达州人在除工资外还能获得小费的行业工作。两位候选人都宣布支持这项政策在拉斯维加斯的集会上.
除了经济，移民也是内华达州的一个大问题，在爱默生学院/希尔九月的民意调查中，8%的人认为这是他们州面临的最重要的问题。对人口统计数据的分析也表明，这个问题比最高线数据所显示的要复杂得多。拉美裔人更关心经济(44%)和住房负担能力(16%)，而不是移民(5%)。内华达州的白人更可能说移民是他们的首要问题(9%)，但它仍然排在经济(38%)、住房负担能力(15%)和对民主的威胁(11%)之后。
落选选举
内华达州今年还将选举一名美国参议员。但是，尽管科尔特斯·马斯托的连任在2022年结束，她的民主党参议员杰克·罗森正在轮询遥遥领先她今年的共和党挑战者，阿富汗战争老兵萨姆·布朗。各州选民还将决定是否采用新的投票系统，允许在大选中进行前五名、所有党派的初选和优先选择投票，类似于阿拉斯加目前的系统.
另一项投票措施将给予内华达州选民决定的机会是否将堕胎的权利编成法典在胎儿存活之前。(堕胎目前在内华达州受州法律保护。)虽然堕胎对内华达州的选民来说不是最重要的话题，但这个州却是全国最自由的人之一当谈到想要确保访问时。整整80%的内华达州成年人反对在胎儿存活之前将堕胎定罪根据马里兰大学公共咨询项目今年夏天早些时候的一项调查。64%的人支持确保堕胎权利的联邦法律。在获得节育措施方面，内华达州也是最支持的摇摆州:90%的内华达州选民支持联邦政府继续要求医疗保险计划涵盖长期节育措施，如宫内节育器。这超过了任何其他摇摆州的调查结果，也超过了整个美国。
一些活动家一直希望像这样的投票措施可能有助于民主党人在选票上领先，或者通过鼓励有同情心的人群参加投票或保持堕胎的问题(对民主党大幅领先)在新闻报道中出现。但堕胎相关的投票措施增加了投票率的证据是相当混杂.
脚注
*本文中的所有数据都是截至美国东部时间9月27日下午1:30。
* *仅基于对潜在选民和登记选民的民意调查(如果民意调查包括两类人群的结果，我们使用潜在选民)。如果一项民意调查既包括哈里斯和特朗普之间的对决，也包括第三方的版本，我们就使用面对面的版本。民意测验专家定义为“拉丁裔”和“西班牙裔”的群体之间的交叉表都包括在内。最后，如果一个民意调查组织(定义为民意调查者和赞助者之间的合作关系，或者如果他们的工作没有得到外部团体的赞助，则仅民意调查者一个人)在相关时间范围内有一个以上的调查，则只包括最新的版本。包括8月27日至9月27日东部时间下午1:30进行和发布的所有民调。
Why Nevada is so close in 2024
The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada,North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With the outsized importance of these states, it's worth taking a closer look at the data we have in each of them — not just where the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands today, but also each candidate's path to victory and what issues could tip the election. Second up: the Silver State, Nevada, which is part of anincreasingly purple swath in the Southwest.
The history
With one exception — 1976 —Nevada voted for the winnerin every presidential contest from 1912 until 2016, when it broke its winning streak by voting for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by just over 2 points. While it has onlysix electoral votes, those votes have proven decisive in the tight contests of the recent era. Nevada helped elect President Joe Biden in 2020, who carried the state by a nearly identical margin to Clinton's, and in 2022, the purple state helped determine controlof the Senatein a close race thattook days to call.
The results of the last six presidential elections in Nevada compared with the national popular vote.
Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538
Presidential margins in the state have been narrow over the last two decades (with the exception of former President Barack Obama's relatively big wins in 2008 and 2012) and in many cases have closely approximated the national popular vote. Despite having consistently tight races, the state has been steadily blue in presidential races since 2008, while also trending right compared to the country as a whole. In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 percentage points, compared to his 7-point win nationally, putting the state 5 points to the left of the country. But in each election since then, Nevada has inched right. In 2020, Biden won nationally by 4 points, but only won the Silver State by 2, placing it to therightof the national popular vote for the first time since the 2004 presidential election.
The 2024 polls
Polls show an even closer race this year. Harris leads by about 1 point in 538's polling average of the state.* That's a little worse than her performance nationally, where she leads Trump by nearly 3 points, but it's an improvement over Biden,who was trailing Trump in the state.
The demographics
Nearlythree-fourthsof Nevada's population of3.1 millionlives in the Las Vegas metropolitan area in the state's southern tip, giving the city a dominant place in the electoral politics of the Silver State. Beyond that, the Reno metropolitan area on the state's western bend clocks in with nearly half a million people, while most of the rest of the state is an extremely rural desert.
A little over28 percentof the state's total populationis Hispanic or Latino, making it the largest minority group in the state. Indeed, the state is home to the first Latina senator,Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, and targeting Latinos in the Las Vegas areahas been an important strategyforboth parties. A report from theUniversity of Southern California's Center for Inclusive Democracyfound that while only about half of Latino voters across the country turned out in 2020 compared to about two-thirds of the general population, they still made up 15 percent of all voters in Nevada that year. And, as we see inpolls across the country, Republicans seem to be making gains with these voters; in an average of polls conducted over the last month, Nevada Latino voters said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 21-point margin (58 percent to 37 percent)**, a slight drop from the26-point marginBiden had over Trump among the demographic in 2020, but about on par with national polling among Latino voters.
The state is also growing and diversifying rapidly. Its population increased 15 percent between 2010 and 2020, driven by growth among minority groups as the white population shrank, according to the Center for Inclusive Democracy report. That included around 40 percent growth in both Asian and Black populations in the state. Overall, one-third of Nevada voters in 2020 were nonwhite — a number that could increase this year if those demographic trends have continued.
The state also has a slightly lower percentage of adults with at least a bachelor's degree — 29 percent — compared to 36 percent nationwide. The divide between voters with or without college degrees has been one of themost important political dividesof the past few elections, and voters without college degrees have become another battleground demographic group of sorts. Since his first presidential run, Trump has dominated among white voters without college degrees, while college graduates have migrated solidly into the Democratic Party. And while Black and Latino voters still overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Democrats in recent elections, those without college degreeshave been trending towardthe Republican Party like their white counterparts have been.
All of that means that the state abounds with key demographic groups for each party, which helps explain why the elections there have been so close.
The issues
To a unique degree, Nevada's economydepends on the hospitality industry. It was among the statesmost impactedby the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic, andthe pandemic's economic impacts were particularly lasting there.
Unsurprisingly, the top issue for Nevada voters going into the election is the economy, which 39 percent of likely voters named as the most important issue facing their state in anEmerson College/The Hill poll of swing statesfrom September. But that's actually a bit less than the share of voters nationally (43 percent) who said the same in a similar poll fromEmerson College in September. In fact, with the exception of Arizona, Nevada voters were the least likely of all swing-state voters to name the economy as their top issue. Instead, many appear to be focused on a related issue that has been particularly troubling in the state: housing.
Housing affordability was the second most important issue to Nevada voters, with 16 percent naming it as their top issue, the highest of any state in the Emerson swing-state surveys. Nevada's surge of new residents, concentrated in the Las Vegas area, has put pressure on a housing market struggling to keep up with demand. Many new residentsare moving in from California, which has a much higher cost of living, making Nevada a bargain for them but helping push prices out of reach for existing residents.According to Zillow, the Home Value Index in Nevada has grown 34 percent since the start of the Biden presidency, slightly faster than the rate of increase nationwide. The median rental price in Nevada is$2,075, which is $25 less than the national median but represents a $75 increase since September 2023. And Harris may have an advantage on the issue: According to a SeptemberBloomberg/Morning Consult survey, Nevadans trust Harris over Trump on the issue of housing by a 10-point margin (49 percent to 39 percent of registered voters).
On the other hand, Trump appears to have an advantage on the economy in the state (as he does nationally).Fifty-threepercent of registered voters in Nevadatrust him more than Harris on the issue, according to an August CNN/SSRS poll. According to an earlierEmerson College/The Hill pollof the state, 71 percent of likely voters also support Trump's proposal (that's also been adopted by Harris) to eliminate taxes on tips, perhaps because so many Nevadans work in industries where they receive tips in addition to wages. Both candidates announced their support for the policyat rallies in Las Vegas.
Beyond the economy, immigration is also a big issue for Nevadans, with 8 percent naming it as the most important issue facing their state in the Emerson College/The Hill September poll. A look at the demographic breakdown also shows that the issue is more complicated than topline numbers might indicate. Latinos care more about the economy (44 percent) and housing affordability (16 percent) than immigration (5 percent). White Nevadans were more likely to say immigration was their top issue (9 percent), but it still came in behind the economy (38 percent), housing affordability (15 percent) and threats to democracy (11 percent).
The downballot races
Nevada is also electing a U.S. senator this year. But while Cortez Masto's reelection was close in 2022, her fellow Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosenis pollingwell aheadof her Republican challenger this year, Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown. State voters will also be deciding whether to adopt a new voting system that would allow top-five, all-party primaries and ranked-choice voting in general elections,similar to a system currently in place in Alaska.
Another ballot measure will give Nevada voters the chance to decidewhether to codify the right to abortionbefore fetal viability in the state constitution. (Abortion is currently protected in Nevada by state law.) While abortion is not the most important topic for voters in Nevada, the state isamong the most liberal in the nationwhen it comes to wanting to ensure access. A full 80 percent of Nevada adultsoppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability, according to a survey from the University of Maryland Program for Public Consultation earlier this summer. And 64 percent would favor a federal law ensuring abortion access. Nevada is also the most supportive swing state when it comes to access to birth control: 90 percent of Nevada voters support the federal government continuing to require health insurance plans to cover long-term birth control, like IUDs. That's more than any other swing state polled and the U.S. as a whole.
Some activists have been hoping that ballot measures like this might help Democrats at the top of the ticket, either byencouraging turnout among sympathetic demographic groupsor keeping the issue of abortion (on whichDemocrats have a big lead)in the news. But the evidence for abortion-related ballot measures juicing turnout isfairly mixed.
Footnotes
*All numbers in this article are as of Sept. 27 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Based on polls of likely and registered voters only (if a poll included results among both populations, we used likely voters). If a poll included both a head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump and a version including third parties, we used the head-to-head version. Crosstabs among groups defined by pollsters as "Latino" and "Hispanic" are both included. Finally, if a polling organization (defined as a partnership between a pollster and sponsor, or a pollster alone if their work was not sponsored by an outside group) had more than one survey in the relevant time frame, only the most recent version was included. All polls conducted and released between Aug. 27 and Sept. 27 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern are included.
