尽管取得了历史性的进展，但前总统唐纳德·特朗普和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯陷入了一场拒绝在民调误差范围外让步的竞赛——外部因素开始发挥越来越重要的作用。
两次暗杀企图、一场辩论、关于特朗普竞选团队阴谋论和理论家的争议等，基本上都没有以任何重要的方式推动选举，让球场上的球员在选举日之前向看台寻求帮助。
对特朗普来说，最近推动改变内布拉斯加州选举人票计算方式和改变佐治亚州规则的举措标志着他在关键战场地区获得优势的努力。与此同时，哈里斯正在依靠关于堕胎的公投来提高投票率，同时希望围绕北卡罗来纳州副州长和共和党州长候选人的一场风暴将抑制紫色州的共和党人。
总的来说，在一次又一次的民意调查显示仍然是一场激烈的竞争中，这些策略是找到一些优势的一种方式，即使是在边缘地带。
北卡罗莱纳州民主党策略师摩根·杰克逊说:“由于选民高度两极分化，许多州和许多选举都取决于胜负，所以每一点都有帮助。”
“这是一个井喷3分的环境，”他补充说。“人们只是被锁在里面。47%的人被锁定在一方，47%的人被锁定在另一方，无论哪个候选人有能力在边缘地带移动指针，都将获胜。”
在大多数全国性和摇摆州的民调中，寻找优势的必要性都得到了强调，这些民调很少显示任何一方在误差范围之外领先。自7月底以来，哈里斯的平均民调支持率从538点一直没有超过3.7个百分点，这一优势不会让民主党人坐收渔利，也不会让共和党人出局。
这并不是因为缺乏尝试。
对特朗普的两次暗杀企图是黑天鹅事件的类型，通常会为候选人带来大量的善意。另一方面，哈里斯的辩论表现和围绕前总统关于他在俄亥俄州斯普林菲尔德的合法移民的言论的争议，以及与阴谋论者劳拉·卢默的联系，可能有助于提升副总统在去年的政治气候中的地位。
但是由于每个候选人都享有很高的支持率，他们不得不去别处寻求支持。
特朗普的盟友在佐治亚州推动了新的计票规则，包括手动计票而不是依靠机器-这位前总统声称这一推动将有助于消除欺诈，但专家们坚持认为这将导致更多错误。
他还发起了一场压力运动，要求内布拉斯加州的选举计数成为赢家通吃的系统，而不是按国会选区分配选举人团票，为哈里斯在奥马哈获得一票提供了一个窗口。由于共和党州议员支持不足，这一努力胎死腹中。
哈里斯寄希望于堕胎投票倡议所激发的基础将会提升她在像亚利桑那、佛罗里达和内华达这样的目标州的胜利。罗宾逊的丑闻涉及一个色情网站的聊天论坛上的帖子，其中他称自己为“黑纳粹”，以及其他事情，发生在2020年支持特朗普的一个摇摆州，民主党人认为这是轻率的。
“当谈到堕胎公投或人工计票或罗宾逊，你不会在任何事情上移动一个完整的点。你可能会转移几千张选票。这些州会不会只剩下几千张选票，这才是真正的核心问题，”一名前特朗普政府高级官员表示。“你试图得到你的零碎。”
外部因素的重要性在一场候选人特朗普拥有全球知名度的竞选中是有意义的。哈里斯有培养选民对她的看法的空间，但她也是一位杰出的政治人物，曾担任过四年加州参议员，并在现任办公室工作了近四年。
“有一点，”一位熟悉哈里斯竞选团队想法的消息人士在被问及他们是否对竞选中整体缺乏运动感到惊讶时表示。“我们都知道特朗普的定义和知名度有多高，所以很难改变对他的看法也就不足为奇了。但我确实预计，鉴于选民对副总统缺乏了解，从各方面来看，一场强有力的辩论表现会对她产生更大的影响。"
共和党策略师、支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会(super PAC)负责人戴夫·卡尼(Dave Carney)补充说:“(特朗普)今年夏天度过了他政治生涯中最好的10周，哈里斯也度过了民主党有史以来最好的10周，我们还和三个月前完全一样。”。
依靠外部因素并不完全是独创的策略。
曾在希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)2016年竞选活动中工作的民主党策略师卡伦·芬尼(Karen Finney)指出，前总统乔治·w·布什(George W. Bush)在2004年依靠反同性婚姻投票倡议来激起保守派的热情，前总统比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)在2106年前往犹他州的一个筹款活动，试图在对特朗普持怀疑态度的摩门教选民中获得利益。克林顿竞选团队还在一家国有报纸上发表了一篇专栏文章。
芬尼说:“竞选活动正在寻找他们可以获得哪怕一点点优势的地方，有时这种优势会出现在意想不到的地方。”"考虑到差距如此之小，你肯定不想留下任何蛛丝马迹。"
目前还不清楚候选人会从中受益多少。
布什在2004年轻松获胜，但那次胜利主要归功于该国在战时改选了总司令。众所周知，克林顿输给了特朗普。
但是，两党的战略家都说，这至少值得一试
“没有人对唐纳德·特朗普没有看法，这种看法不会改变，”民主党策略师、总统竞选老手彼得·詹格莱科(Peter Giangreco)说。"所以，如果你不能影响投票率，那你还能做什么?"
Trump, Harris lean on outside factors to sway stubbornly competitive race
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a race that refuses to budge outside the polling margin of error despite historic developments -- and outside factors are starting to play increasingly important roles.
Two assassination attempts, a debate, controversies over conspiracy theories and theorists from the Trump campaign and more have largely failed to move the electoral needle in any significant way, leaving the players on the court looking for help from the stands before Election Day.
For Trump, a recent push to change the way Nebraska's electoral votes are tallied and changes to the rules in Georgia marked an effort to gain advantages in key battleground areas. Meanwhile, Harris is leaning on referenda on abortion access to juice turnout while hoping that a firestorm surrounding North Carolina Lt. Gov. and GOP gubernatorial nominee will depress Republicans in the purple state.
Taken together, the maneuvers serve as a way to find some -- any -- edge, even if on the margins, in a race that poll after poll shows remains a nailbiter.
"With a highly polarized electorate, a lot of these states and a lot of these elections come down to winning or losing on the margins, so every bit helps," said North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
"It's an environment that a blowout is 3 points," he added. "People are just locked in. Forty-seven percent of people are locked in on one side, 47% of people are locked in on the other side, and whatever candidate has that ability to move the needle in the margins is going to win."
The need to find an edge has been underscored in most national and swing state polls, which rarely show either side having a lead outside the margin of error. The polling average from 538 hasn't grown beyond a 3.7-point lead for Harris since the end of July, an edge that doesn't leave Democrats sitting pretty or Republicans out of the game.
That's not for lack of trying.
Two assassination attempts on Trump are the type of black swan event that would ordinarily fuel a flood of goodwill for a candidate. On the flip side, Harris' debate performance and controversies around the former president about his remarks about legal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, and affiliation with conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer might help lift the vice president's standing in yesteryear's political climate.
But with each candidate enjoying high floors of support, they're forced to look elsewhere for boosts.
Trump allies pushed through new vote-counting rules in Georgia, including the hand tallying of ballots versus relying on machines -- a push the former president has alleged will help weed out fraud but that experts have insisted will instead lead to more errors.
He also waged a pressure campaign to have Nebraska's electoral count be a winner-take-all system rather than allot Electoral College votes by congressional district, offering Harris a window to get one vote in Omaha. That effort died due to insufficient support among Republican state legislators.
Harris is banking that a base energized by abortion ballot initiatives will lift her to victory in target states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada. And Robinson's scandal, involving posts on a chat forum for a pornographic website in which he called himself a "black NAZI," among other things, is taking place in the one swing state that went for Trump in 2020 and Democrats believe is flippable.
"When it comes to abortion referendums or hand-counting ballots or Robinson, you're not moving a whole point here on anything. You're maybe moving a couple thousand votes. And are these states going to come down to a couple thousand votes, is really the core question," said one former senior Trump administration official. "You try to get your bits and pieces."
The importance of the outside factors makes sense in a race where on candidate, Trump, has universal name recognition. Harris has room to cultivate voter perceptions of her, but also is a prominent political figure, having spent four years as a California senator and another nearly four years in her current office.
"A little bit," a source familiar with the Harris campaign's thinking said when asked if they were surprised by the overall lack of movement in the race. "We all how well-defined and well-known Trump is, so it should come as no surprise that it's harder to move views of him. But I did expect, given voters' lack of familiarity with the vice president, that by all accounts, a strong debate performance would have done more to move the needle for her."
"Look, [Trump] had the best 10 weeks of his political career this summer, and Harris has had the best 10 weeks of any Democrat ever running, and we're exactly where we were three months ago," added Dave Carney, a GOP strategist and head of a pro-Trump super PAC.
Leaning on outside factors isn't a wholly original tactic.
Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, noted that former President George W. Bush leaned on anti-same sex marriage ballot initiatives to gin up enthusiasm among conservatives in 2004 and that former President Bill Clinton traveled in 2106 for a fundraiser in Utah, a deep red bastion, to try to make gains among Mormon voters who were skeptical of Trump. The Clinton campaign also released an op-ed in a state newspaper.
"Campaigns are looking for places where they can gain even a little bit of an advantage, sometimes that comes in unexpected places," Finney said. "Given how close the margins are, you don’t want to leave anything on the table."
It's unclear how much the candidates will benefit.
Bush coasted the victory in 2004, but that win was largely attributed to the country reelecting a commander-in-chief during wartime. And Clinton famously lost to Trump.
But, strategists in both parties said, it's at least worth a shot
"There isn't anybody who doesn't have an opinion about Donald Trump, and it's not going to move," said Peter Giangreco, a Democratic strategist and presidential campaign trail veteran. "So, if you can't affect turnout, then what else are you going to do?"
