特朗普和普京表示他们很快会通电话。他们会聊些什么?

  随着唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统寻求通过解决乌克兰战争来实现他所说的成为“和平缔造者”的目标,他在第二任期的头几天多次呼吁与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京直接沟通——他说他“真的希望能够尽快会见”俄罗斯领导人,“以结束这场战争”

  “据我所知,我认为普京希望见到我。我们将尽快会面,”特朗普周四在白宫表示。

  克里姆林宫表示,普京准备好与特朗普通话,只等华盛顿发出特朗普也准备好的信号。

  双方都表示,电话被视为领导人之间更实质性的面对面会晤的第一步——普京表示他更喜欢这种形式。

  “我们最好在今天的现实基础上会面,心平气和地讨论双方都感兴趣的所有领域美国和俄罗斯,”普京在周五的电视采访中说道。

  打破沉默

  自乌克兰战争开始以来,两人之间的任何对话都将标志着美国现任总统和普京首次交谈,尽管前总统拜登在莫斯科入侵之前多次与普京通电话,敦促普京反对入侵。

  战争期间,较低级别政府之间的沟通一直在继续,一名熟悉情况的消息人士告诉美国广播公司新闻,特朗普就职后,美国和俄罗斯外交官之间的工作级别会谈一直在正常进行。

  甚至在特朗普重返白宫之前,他的国家安全顾问迈克·华尔兹(Mike Waltz)在接受美国广播公司(ABC)的“本周”(This Week)采访时表示,普京和特朗普已经在准备“在未来几天和几周内”通过电话交谈。

  特朗普还表示,他将采取比电话更进一步的行动,预测他将在就职典礼后“很快”与普京会面。

  普京似乎也愿意重新开放与白宫的沟通渠道,称赞特朗普本周早些时候愿意“恢复与俄罗斯的直接接触”。

  有时,特朗普因与普京的关系被一些人描述为过于亲密而受到批评。

  2022年2月,特朗普在接受电台采访时称赞普京在乌克兰的战略,称入侵是“天才”和“精明的”。

  在2018年与普京在赫尔辛基举行的峰会上,特朗普受到了两党的批评,因为他说“没有任何理由相信”俄罗斯干预了2016年的选举,这与美国情报界的调查结果相反。

  普京也高度评价特朗普,支持他毫无根据的说法,即202年选举是从他那里偷走的,并同意特朗普的说法,即如果他还在任,乌克兰战争就不会发生。

  施压策略

  特朗普与普京友好关系的记录与他最近对俄罗斯的威胁形成了鲜明对比。

  “现在解决,停止这场荒谬的战争!只会越来越糟。特朗普本周早些时候在Truth Social上写道:“如果我们不尽快达成‘协议’,我别无选择,只能对俄罗斯向美国和其他各参与国出售的任何东西征收高水平的税收、关税和制裁。”。

  乌克兰战争爆发后,美国和俄罗斯之间的贸易跌至苏联解体以来的最低水平,这使得特朗普的关税威胁基本上没有效力。

  然而,在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛的一次虚拟亮相中,总统加大了赌注,称他将要求石油输出国组织卡特尔“降低石油成本”

  “那将结束战争。你可以结束战争,”他说。

  拜登政府与G7的其他政府一道,对2022年俄罗斯海运石油出口实行了每桶60美元的价格上限——这是一种侵蚀莫斯科利润的手段,同时避免了能源危机。

  俄罗斯一直能够从折扣出口中获得少量利润,但如果石油输出国组织增加石油产量,从而降低其他出口国的天然气成本,克里姆林宫可能会失去客户。

  大西洋理事会全球能源中心(Atlantic Council ' s Global Energy Center)高级研究员约瑟夫·韦伯斯特(Joseph Webster)说,“如果特朗普能够说服石油输出国组织以俄罗斯的产量为代价提高产量——这是他的前任从未能达成的协议——他就可以确保对俄罗斯的影响力,维持世界能源价格的低位,并让美国石油和天然气公司及其客户满意。”。

  克里姆林宫方面对川普的威胁反应冷淡。

  “我们在这里没有看到任何特别的新元素,”发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周四表示。

  其他问题,其他国家

  在乌克兰之外,特朗普和普京都表示,他们打算恢复核军备控制谈判。

  俄罗斯和美国控制着世界上88%的核弹头,但在乌克兰战争的过程中,两国都暂停了对这两个大国之间最后一项主要军控条约的参与,该条约将于2026年到期。

  军备控制协会(Arms Control Association)执行董事达里尔·金博尔(Daryl Kimball)表示:“与克里姆林宫谈判任何新的核军备控制协议都将很难敲定,一项新的全面框架协议可能需要数月甚至数年的持续谈判才能达成。”。

  在特朗普的第一个任期内,他的目标是在美国、俄罗斯和中国之间达成三方核不扩散协议,但未能达成这一协议——特朗普在第二个任期的头几天再次谈到了这一前景。

  谈到结束乌克兰战争,特朗普还表示,他打算将俄罗斯最强大的盟友中国纳入其中,称北京“对局势有很大的影响力”。

  不清楚的是特朗普计划如何或是否将乌克兰纳入谈判。

  在周四播出的福克斯新闻频道采访中,川普批评了乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基,称“他不是天使”,他“不应该允许”与俄罗斯的战争发生。

  周五,乌克兰总统办公室主任安德烈·耶尔马克(Andriy Yermak)在社交媒体上写道,普京“正试图推动与美国谈判的想法。”

  “但他有一个条件:他想决定欧洲的命运——没有欧洲。他寻求谈论乌克兰——没有乌克兰,”耶尔马克说,“这将不会发生。

  Trump, Putin signal they'll have a phone call soon. What will they talk about?

  As President Donald Trump looks to fulfill what he says is his goal to be known as a "peacemaker" by settling the war in Ukraine, he's called for a direct line of communication with Russia's President Vladimir Putin multiple times during the first days of his second term -- saying he "really would like to be able to meet" the Russian leader soon to "get that war ended."

  "I think from what I hear, Putin would like to see me. We'll meet as soon as we can," Trump said at the White House on Thursday.

  The Kremlin said that Putin was ready to hold a call with Trump and was only waiting on Washington to signal that Trump was also ready.

  Both sides have indicated that a phone call is seen as a first step toward a more substantial, in-person meeting between the leaders -- a format Putin suggested he would prefer.

  "It would be better for us to meet, based on the realities of today, to talk calmly on all those areas that are of interest to both theUnited Statesand Russia," Putin said during a televised interview on Friday.

  Breaking the silence

  Any conversation between the two would mark the first time a sitting U.S. president and Putin have spoken since the war in Ukraine began, although former President Joe Biden held phone calls with Putin multiple times in the leadup to Moscow's invasion to urge Putin against it.

  Communication between lower tiers of government has continued through the war, and a source familiar with the situation told ABC News that working-level talks between American and Russian diplomats had continued at normal clip following Trump's inauguration.

  Even before Trump reentered the White House, his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said in an interview on ABC's "This Week" that preparations were already underway for Putin and Trump to speak by phone "in the coming days and weeks."

  Trump also said he would take it further than a phone call, predicting he would meet with Putin "very quickly" after his inauguration.

  Putin has also seemed receptive reopening lines of communication with the White House, applauding Trump's willingness to "restore direct contacts with Russia" earlier this week.

  At times, Trump has been criticized for having what some describe as an overly cozy relationship with Putin.

  In February 2022, Trump praised Putin's strategy in Ukraine, calling the invasion "genius" and "savvy" during a radio interview.

  At a summit with Putin held in Helsinki in 2018, Trump drew bipartisan criticism for saying he "didn't see any reason to believe" Russia meddled in the 2016 election, contrary to the findings of the U.S. intelligence community.

  Putin has also spoken highly of Trump, endorsing his baseless claims that the 202 election was stolen from him and agreeing with Trump's statements that the war in Ukraine never would have happened if were still in office.

  Pressure tactics

  Trump's track record of warm relations with Putin sharply contrasts with his recent threats against Russia.

  "Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal', and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries," Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier this week.

  In the wake of the war in Ukraine, trade between the U.S. and Russia plummeted to the lowest levels since the fall of the Soviet Union -- making Trump's threat of tariffs mostly toothless.

  However, during a virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the president upped the ante, saying he would ask the OPEC cartel to "bring down the cost of oil."

  "That will end the war. You could end the war," he said.

  The Biden administration, along with other governments in the G7, instituted a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports shipped by sea in 2022 -- a play to eat into Moscow's profits while avoiding an energy crisis.

  Moscow has been able to make a small profit from its discounted exports, but if OPEC were to ramp up production of oil, therefore bringing down the cost of gas from other exporters, the Kremlin could lose its customers.

  "If Trump can persuade OPEC to boost production at the expense of Russian volumes -- a deal his predecessor was never able to strike -- he could secure leverage over Moscow, maintain low world energy prices, and keep US oil and gas companies and their customers happy," said Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center.

  For its part, the Kremlin has responded to Trump's threats cooly.

  "We do not see any particular new elements here," spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

  Other issues, other countries

  Beyond Ukraine, both Trump and Putin have indicated that they intend to intend to resume talks on nuclear arms control.

  Russia and the U.S. control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads, but through the course of the war in Ukraine, both countries have suspended their participation in the last major arms control treaty between the two powers, which is due to expire in 2026.

  "Negotiating any new nuclear arms control agreement with the Kremlin would be difficult to hammer out and a new comprehensive framework deal could require sustained talks over many months, if not years, to achieve," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

  During Trump's first term in office, he aimed but failed to strike a three-way nuclear nonproliferation deal between the U.S., Russia and China -- a prospect Trump has revisited during the first days of his second term.

  When it comes to ending the war in Ukraine, Trump has also said he intends to bring China -- Russia's most powerful ally -- into the fold, saying Beijing has a "great deal of power over the situation."

  What's not clear is how -- or if -- Trump plans to incorporate Ukraine in the talks.

  In an interview with Fox News that aired on Thursday, Trump criticized Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy -- saying "he's not angel" and that he "shouldn't have allowed" the war with Russia to happen.

  On Friday, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, wrote on social media that Putin " is trying to push the idea of negotiations with the United States."

  "But he has one condition: he wants to decide Europe's fate -- without Europe. And he seeks to talk about Ukraine-- without Ukraine," Yermak said, "This will not happen.

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